Internal Labor party polling conducted this week suggests the government could win the popular vote on Saturday but lose office on the back of a rout in NSW and Queensland marginal seats.
The polling, leaked to the Seven Network on Thursday, reveals Labor faces the loss of 20 seats in the two key battleground states.
The ALP polled 1650 voters this week across 10 NSW marginal seats and 10 Queensland marginal seats.
The poll showed a three per cent swing against Labor in the NSW marginals, which would see the government lose seven seats with three at risk, the Seven Network reported.
Seats which would fall to the coalition if the internal polling is accurate are: Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong, Eden-Monaro and Page.
Those at risk are: Dobell, Greenway and Lindsay.
The ALP’s polling in the Queensland marginals showed a four per cent swing to the coalition, which would translate to six seats changing hands with four at risk.
Those that would fall are: Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson and Forde. At risk are: Leichhardt, Petrie, Bonner and Brisbane.
The internal research also shows the government losing two seats in Western Australia – Hasluck and Swan – but picking up the same number in Victoria – McEwen and La Trobe.
The party’s polling has the government winning the popular vote nation-wide 52 to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
But if the marginals tumble in NSW and Queensland as predicted Labor could lose power.
The coalition needs to pick up 17 seats to win the election. The government can lose its absolute majority if it loses 13 seats.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said on Thursday he was “increasingly confident” of victory on Saturday.
But he dismissed the ALP’s polling as little more than spin.
“Labor has released this for a reason,” he told the Seven Network.
“I think it’s probably just more spin from a bad government.”